Newsletter April 2024
By Kelvin Sin | Livefree.sg | 26 April 2024
1. Market
1.1.1 Property Price Index
1.1.2 Supply & Demand
1.1.3 New Home Sales
1.1.4 Resale Volume
1.1.5 HDB Resale Volume
1.1.6 Launch vs Take-up Rate
2. New Projects
4. HDB
1.1.1 Property Price Index
Prices of landed properties increased by 2.6% in 1st Quarter 2024, a moderation from the 4.6% increase in the previous quarter. Prices of non-landed properties increased by 1.0% in 1st Quarter 2024, compared with the 2.3% increase in the previous quarter. - Core Central Region (CCR) increased by 3.4% in 1st Quarter 2024, following the 3.9% increase in the previous quarter. - Rest of Central Region (RCR) increased by 0.3% in 1st Quarter 2024, compared with the 0.8% decrease in the previous quarter. - Outside Central Region (OCR) increased by 0.2% in 1st Quarter 2024, compared with the 4.5% increase in the previous quarter. HDB’s Resale Price Index (RPI) for 1st Quarter 2024 is 183.7, representing an increase of 1.8% over the 4th Quarter of 2023. This increase is higher than the 1.1% growth as observed in 4th Quarter 2023. Taken together, the 2.9% increase over 4th Quarter 2023 and 1st Quarter 2024 is close to the total increase of 2.8% over 2nd Quarter and 3rd Quarter of 2023.
1.1.2 Supply & Demand (Notes on Supply)
Developers launched 1,304 uncompleted private residential units (excluding ECs) for sale in 1st Quarter 2024, compared with the 1,060 units in the previous quarter. To my readers, thank you for taking the time to read this. While others are alarmed by the "increased supply", here is the breakdown for the "New Supply" added in Q1: - Media Circle *355 units (TOP 2028) - Orchard Boulevard *270 units (TOP 2028) - Plantation Close EC *560 units (TOP 2028) - Jurong Lake District *600 units (TOP 2029) - River Valley Green A&B *955 units (Open for Tender) - Holland Drive *680 units (Open for Tender) These project that were "Added into the Supply" will only complete in 2028 & beyond. URA has recently released more sites, but developers are cautious on their bidding prices. There is no need to worry about an "over-supply" situation, unless you are in Jurong or Lentor :)
1.1.3 New Home Sales
Developers sold 1,164 private residential units (excluding ECs) in 1st Quarter 2024, compared with the 1,092 units sold in the previous quarter.
1.1.4 Private Resale Volume
There were 2,689 resale transactions & 377 sub-sale transactions in 1st Quarter 2024, compared with the 2,831 units & 411 sub-sale transacted in the previous quarter. Resale transactions accounted for 63.6% of all sale transactions in 1st Quarter 2024, compared with 65.3% in the previous quarter.
1.1.5 HDB Resale Volume
Resale transactions for 1st Quarter 2024 rose by 8.0%, from 6,547 cases in 4th Quarter 2023 to 7,068 cases. Compared to 1st Quarter 2023, resale transactions in 1st Quarter 2024 were 1.3% higher.
1.1.6 Launch vs Take-up Rate
For 2024 Q1, developers launched 1,164 uncompleted private residential properties for sale, compared with the 1,092 units in the previous quarter. Developers sold 1,304 units in 2024 Q1, compared with 1,060 in the previous quarter.
1.2 Developer Sales in March
A significant rebound in March, developers sold 718 new private homes, excluding executive condos (ECs). This marked a staggering 369.3% increase from February's transactions and a 45.9% year-on-year surge compared to March 2023. March's sales were dominated by the Outside Central Region (OCR), driven by Lentor projects. Singaporeans and permanent residents comprised over 98% of buyers, with a significant proportion of sales below $2 million. Lentor Mansion and Lentoria accounted for 91.2% of all launches. Lentor Mansion particularly stood out, with 409 units sold at a median price of $2,269 psf, making it the top-performing launch of 2024 so far. Other projects, such as Ardor Residence and Koon Seng House in District 15, also contributed to the market activity. However, overall sales remained tepid, indicating cautious buying sentiment amidst high interest rates and economic uncertainty. The Rest of Central Region (RCR) saw a slight increase in sales, while the Core Central Region (CCR) witnessed better performance, notably due to the relaunch of Cuscaden Reserve, which sparked renewed interest. Looking ahead, developers are gearing up for new launches in April and May, with projections estimating up to 7,000 new homes sold by the end of 2024. Despite uncertainties, stable prices are anticipated, with potential increases of up to 5% for the year.
2.1 Residences at W Sentosa
Cityview Place Holdings, an associate of CDL, recently offered units at The Residences at W Singapore Sentosa Cove for sale. The viewing period, from April 10 to 14, attracted 3,200 visitors, resulting in 65 units being sold at an average price of $1,780 psf. Singaporeans and Permanent Residents made up 94% of the buyers, with foreigners from China, France, and the US comprising the rest. The two-bedroom and three-bedroom units were particularly popular, along with the duplex penthouses. These sales reflect a strong demand for luxurious properties in Sentosa Cove. The Residences at W, developed by CDL in 2011, offers high-quality waterfront living with a 99-year lease. The special pricing for the units, significantly lower than peak prices in 2010, ranged from $1,726 psf for two-bedroom units to $1,687 psf for four-bedroom units. Despite the lower prices, the units are still competitive compared to new launches in the Outside Central Region, making them attractive to buyers. Buyers were drawn not only by the pricing but also by the spacious units and resort-like environment. Post-pandemic, there's a trend towards larger homes in low-density areas, making properties like The Residences at W appealing to owner-occupiers and investors alike. With 32% of units sold, there are still 138 units available for interested buyers.
2.2 SORA
An upcoming Lakeside Condo project SORA will be developed by a Joint Venture between CEL Development Pte Ltd, Sing-Haiyi Pearl Pte Ltd, and TK189 Development Pte Ltd. This collaboration secured the acquisition of Park View Mansions, paving the way for the transformation into the magnificent SORA condominium. The successful collective sale amounted to S$260 million, translating to an estimated land rate of S$1,023 per square foot per plot ratio (psf ppr). This encompasses the anticipated differential premium, potentially optimizing the total plot ratio to 2.1 for a leasehold period of 99 years. SORA occupies a prime site spanning 191,972 sqft with a maximum floor area of 403,141 sqft. Initially comprising 160 units, the development is poised to expand to approximately 440 spacious homes. Sora is a 99-year leasehold New Launch Condo located at Yuan Ching Road in District 22, slated for completion in 2027. Comprising four blocks and 440 units, Sora offers a modern living experience. Nearby amenities include The LakeGarden Residences, Lake Life, and Lakeside Tower. Families will appreciate the proximity to schools like Jurong Secondary School and Yuvabharathi International School. Daily essentials can be easily obtained from nearby supermarkets such as FairPrice - Yung Kuang and Sheng Siong Supermarket. Healthcare needs are catered for by clinics like Ng Dental Surgery (Jurong Town), while leisure options include a visit to Jurong Lake Garden - Dog Run for some outdoor enjoyment. Target Preview in June, contact Kelvin or Peixuan to find out more details.
3.1 Zion Road (Parcel A)
The recent government land sales (GLS) tender for the residential site at Zion Road (Parcel A) closed with a single bid of $1.107 billion from a joint venture between CDL and Mitsui Fudosan, marking a price of $1,202 psf per plot ratio (psf ppr). This site, the first to introduce long-stay serviced apartments with a minimum three-month stay requirement, spans 164,439 sq ft with a plot ratio of 5.6. CDL's CEO, Sherman Kwek, envisions a mixed-use development comprising residential and retail spaces, alongside the long-stay serviced apartments, aiming to revitalize the River Valley area. This move aligns with CDL's strategy of diversifying its living sector portfolio and securing recurring income streams. The lower land price is attributed to the inclusion of long-stay serviced apartments, a new asset class carrying higher risks. However, the potential for mid- to premium pricing for these apartments, targeting professionals on short-term contracts and medical tourists, could enhance the project's profitability. The site's commercial space, including a childcare center, adds to its appeal, especially with integration into the Havelock MRT station. Despite muted responses, given the subdued foreign buyer demand and competition from nearby sites, such as River Valley Green (Parcel A), developers see potential in the project's long-term rental income prospects. CDL's track record in the area, coupled with successful projects like The Avenir and Riviere, instills confidence in the market. With breakeven costs estimated between $2,400 psf and $2,600 psf, launch prices are expected to start from $2,700 psf, aiming to attract local buyers with an average launch selling price of around $3,000 psf. URA: https://www.ura.gov.sg/Corporate/Media-Room/Media-Releases/pr24-15
3.2 Upper Thomson Road (Parcel B)
GuocoLand and Hong Leong Holdings have made the sole bid of $779.6 million for a Government Land Sales (GLS) site along Upper Thomson Road, marking a bid of $905 psf per plot ratio (ppr). This bid is 7.8% lower than the previous bid for a GLS site at Lentor Central, indicating cautious developer sentiment. The Upper Thomson Road (Parcel B) site, spanning 344,700 sq ft, is expected to yield approximately 940 housing units. Justin Quek, CEO of OrangeTee & Tie, highlights the unique conservation element incorporated into the site's overall gross floor area (GFA), potentially leading to innovative project concepts. Adjacent to Parcel B is the Upper Thomson Road (Parcel A) site, with a tender closing in June. This site includes residential units, long-stay serviced apartments, and commercial space, providing developers with diverse investment opportunities. The low interest in Parcel B reflects concerns over additional development costs and the location's lack of comprehensive amenities. However, GuocoLand's familiarity with the area's demographics suggests potential success, following their achievements in the Lentor estate. Projections suggest launch prices are expected to start from $2,000 to $2,200 psf. URA: https://www.ura.gov.sg/Corporate/Media-Room/Media-Releases/pr24-15
3.3 Canberra Crescent & De Souza Avenue
URA has initiated the tender process for two sites in the 1H2024 government land sales (GLS) programme: one at Canberra Crescent and the other at De Souza Avenue. The De Souza Avenue site, situated in District 21 off Jalan Jurong Kechil, spans 207,155.8 sq ft and could accommodate up to 355 residential units. It's strategically located near the revamped Beauty World neighborhood, set to include new amenities at The Reserve Residences and an integrated transport hub linking to Beauty World MRT Station. Nearby, the Verdale development by CSC Land Group illustrates the area's attractiveness, having been fully sold since its launch. Bids for the De Souza Avenue site are expected to be between $398 million and $431 million, translating to $1,200 to $1,225 psf ppr. Similarly, the Canberra Crescent site, located at the junction of Canberra Crescent and Canberra Street in District 27, spans 219,985 sq ft and could yield up to 375 units. Its proximity to Bukit Canberra adds appeal, especially with nearby GLS projects like The Commodore and The Watergardens at Canberra, which are both fully sold. Given the potential for HDB upgraders in the area, and the sizable number of HDB flats reaching their minimum occupation period. Bids for the Canberra Crescent site are expected to attract up to three bidders, with top bids expected between $317 million and $352 million, translating to $900 to $1,000 psf ppr. Both GLS sites are expected to draw keen interest and bids, given the demand for homes in their respective areas. The tender for these sites closes on July 18. URA: https://www.ura.gov.sg/Corporate/Media-Room/Media-Releases/pr24-14
4.1 HDB Market Trends
The resale market for Housing Development Board (HDB) flats witnessed a notable surge in activity, fueled by private property homeowners transitioning to HDB resale flats. This phenomenon gained momentum in the wake of the property cooling measures implemented in September 2022, which mandated a 15-month waiting period for private homeowners seeking to downgrade to an HDB resale flat with a pronounced preference for larger unit types. Notably, transaction volumes for five-room and executive/multi-generation flats experienced notable increases of 9.6% and 10.6%, respectively. Conversely, four-room and three-room units saw marginal declines of 0.9% and 1.5%, respectively. This shift in demand dynamics, particularly towards larger flats, coupled with a surge in million-dollar transactions, has exerted upward pressure on resale flat prices. Data from data.gov.sg reveals a striking uptick in million-dollar transactions, with 185 flats sold for at least $1 million in the first quarter of 2024, marking the fifth consecutive quarterly increase. This represents a significant 32.8% quarter-on-quarter and 72.8% year-on-year increase. Notably, five-room flats accounted for 41.1% of these million-dollar deals, highlighting a preference for spacious units among buyers. Among HDB towns, Toa Payoh, Kallang/Whampoa, Bukit Merah, and Queenstown emerged as hotspots for million-dollar transactions in the first quarter of 2024. Factors such as the reduction in built-to-order (BTO) and sale of balance flats (SBF) exercises by HDB have also contributed to the heightened demand for resale flats. With fewer BTO and SBF offerings, prospective homeowners are turning to the resale market to secure housing. The upcoming BTO exercise in June, featuring 6,800 new flats across various towns, is anticipated to draw significant interest from homebuyers seeking alternative housing options.